The elections were held in the backdrop of total failure of UPA2. In the post Independent India, UPA2 created record with large number of scams. Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister was dubbed as dummy or dumb PM with total collapse of administration and remotely controlled by Sonia Gandhi, the real power centre. People were totally fed up. Everyone wanted change and on their own started searching for strong leader. Social Media played a big role. In this process, Modi emerged as natural choice. Many liberal intellectuals may brush aside as if it is elite and casual choice. We may bring lot of statistics to prove that he is not role model. But people's perception is different. Whoever visited Gujarat, they find a difference in providing basic infrastructure like roads, power, drinking water etc. One may argue that there are several States far ahead of Gujarat in Social parametres and growth rate. But remember, do not under estimate the wisdom of people while assessing overall situation. If we are not with open minded to receive others opinions, naturally only deficits and negative aspects alone dominate in our think process. But one likes or not, he has become people's choice which forced BJP leadership to consider Modi as their PM's candidate.
The internal churning process within BJP was not so easy to receive the idea of Modi as PM's candidate. Seniors like Advani, MM Joshi, Sushma Swaraj did not accept Modi not basing on any ideological ground but reluctant to give up their claim. RSS though they had reservations earlier about Modi basing on their experiences in Gujarat, they sensed the mood at ground level and made him as their choice. During this internal bickering, it was Rajnath Singh who backed Modi along with Arun Jaitly and Venkaiah Naidu. The mood of public was such that they went and conducted demonstrations before the house of Advani. Critics may attribute it as pre-planned or stage managed but it does not appear so. Their cadre was crazy about Modi. Meanwhile, National Media conducted opinion polls and it was proved that BJP's prospects were bright if Modi is chosen.
When decks are gradually cleared within BJP, another hurdle came through opposition from NDA partners. Nitish Kumar, the staunch supporter of NDA with Socialist background categorically took uncompromising stand against Modi. Siva Sena too expressed its reservation. Now, there are two roads before BJP leadership. For the sake of keeping allies intact in NDA, they have to leave Modi. Otherwise, face Elections under Modi leadership with reduced allies in NDA. Ultimately, BJP chose second one thereby their tally of seats will increase. This risk of losing allies was calculatedly taken because their priority is to increase their tally.
As expected, this decision galvanized their rank and file as well as young voters who wished it strongly. From that day onwards, there is no looking back. Slowly and gradually euphoria about Modi was gripped entire Nation. It was more visible in Hindi heartland. This atmosphere and local conditions made some Parties to align with BJP and became partners in NDA. Notable among them are TDP in AP; LJSP and Quami Ekta Dal, both in Bihar; DMDK, MDMK, PMK and one more Party in Tamilnadu. So, the worry of desertion of NDA allies is no more valid and in fact the well-known 'secular' Parties headed by Chandrababu Naidu and Ram Vilas Paswan replaced JD (U). However, it could not find allies in West Bengal, Odisha and Kerala. It is a lonely fight in these States. Surveys predict good percentage of votes in these States though they may not win seats particularly in West Bengal and Kerala. They may replace Congress in Odisha as main opposition Party. UP is waged battle single handedly but surveys predict 50% of seats to BJP.
The lion share of its seats are coming from Hindi heartland. But contrary to the past, non-Hindi seat share is also increasing this time to their kitty. On the other hand, Congress also prepared for the battle. In a systematic manner, Rahul Gandhi was brought to the helm of affairs indicating his elevation to the PM's candidate. Technically, he was not declared but all other acts are clearly shown him as their leader. Though Rahul Gandhi was younger and represents youth, the inheritance of UPA rule came as a hurdle to project himself as fresh representing change. Secondly, his basic traits are not impressive to the public. Thirdly, his family roots are not advantageous in the anti-incumbency background in the country.
The so called third Front or forth front did not take place. Over ambitious regional leaders wanted themselves to get as many seats as possible in their home State so that they can also be in the race for PM post in the era of coalition politics. The left block, specifically CPI and CPM have been marginalized in these elections. So it is better to skip debate on third front. The projection of issues by Modi is quite impressive to the people whereas Rahul Gandhi could not be able to catch with. Modi focused on good governance and development. Till that time his critics talked about communal agenda of Modi but he did not lose his temper and not diverted from his favourite topics of bad governance and lack of development. Occasionally, he touched upon common civil code and illegal immigrants which attracted criticism from liberal intellectuals, leftists and secular Parties. But general Public did not be impressive with these critics. Communists who stoutly defended common civil code till 60s and 70s, have become strong opponents of common civil code. In this Country, the definition of Secularism is also liable for change from time to time. Civil Code basing on Religion is Secular whereas Civil Code basing on citizenship is communal! What a tragedy? Criticism of illegal immigration is communal! Oh, at least, they did not brand it as anti-national! Hope, I am not diverting from my topic.
Congress made last minute efforts to get political mileage by dividing AP State and by including Jats under Backward Class category. Both did not work. In fact, the division did cost Congress heavily in the elections. The election campaign of Modi created history. No leader conducted that much number of meetings, rallies. No leader toured like him in the past. He attended 440 Rallies, visited 5800 locations and toured 3 lakh kilo metres. He also invented new programmes like Chai Pe Charcha, 3 D hologram addresses besides active participation in Social Media. In my opinion, National Media particularly English Media is not fair enough with Modi. Only negative brand of his image was more focused than positive aspects. At this juncture, we must appreciate his courage when bomb blast occurred in Patna.
Finally, the election campaign reached its peak at the end and schedule of Varanasi polling in the last phase made the election climate charged till the end. By all counts, this election is historic. Winning the election by NDA is certain and Modi becoming Prime Minister is reality.
Let us wait till 16th for final verdict